Bottom one is best in my humble opinion! It's a great smudge, the first seems unfinished indeed, in the second it seems to me that lowering the saturation a bit might make it look better and the lighting is a little bit off on his left. In the third the focal just doesn't seem to blend that well as in the previous one.
As for the bottom one: The focal seemed a bit small to me compared to the canvas size in the previous ones but in the botom one it's not as disturbing. The smudging looks great in this one and the focal blends a bit better as it seems to be under the same adjustment layers as the bg. Perhaps make it a little less bright but other then that it's definately my favourite out of the four